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r/ukpolitics
r/ukpolitics
145
Posted by
Official UKPolitics Bot
5 months ago
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International Politics Discussion Thread

This thread is for discussing international politics. All subreddit rules apply in this thread, except the rule that states that discussion should only be about UK politics.

Previous MT can be found here.


Russia - Ukraine conflict

Russia are currently invading Ukraine. This has included Russian missile strikes on several cities across the region including the capital Kyiv, and military movement across the country. The UK, US, and EU have imposed strict economic sanctions on hundreds of Russian entities, including top Russian banks, but have (as of 25th Feb) stopped short of the most hard-hitting sanctions such as removing Russia from the SWIFT global payment system.

Ukraine has introduced a State of Emergency. British nationals should flee Ukraine if possible to do so. If you are a British national in Ukraine and you require consular assistance, call +380 44 490 3660.


Notice on Donations
💷Update: The UK Government is matching donations given to the Disasters Emergency Committee, further details regarding safe charitable donations can be found on this Charity Commission press release.

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level 1
Op · 2 mo. ago
Official UKPolitics Bot
1
level 1
Op · 2 mo. ago
Official UKPolitics Bot

Megathread is being rolled over, please refresh your feed in a few moments.

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level 1

This seems like a mildly daft thing for GCHQ to say.

There are no current signs that Russia is considering the use of nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war, the head of GCHQ has said.

Like other US and western officials recently, Sir Jeremy Fleming did not suggest there had been any signs of suspicious activity.

It surely just means someone on the Russian side is going to say "oh, we need to look more like we're going to use them then". So they'll start opening launch doors or polishing their warheads (...as a Tory MP might suggest to an intern...) or whatever it is one does before a launch. And then someone's going to screw up and we're going to have problems.

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level 1

Is there any world event where Elon Musk doesn't try to fucking intervene

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level 1

New Biden attack just dropped, turns out he's a loving father. Not so dark now huh Brandon.

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level 1
· 2 mo. ago
Let's join the EEA.
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level 1
· 2 mo. ago
Brownostalg

So the Serbs are gearing up to be Serbs again… https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2022/10/10/hungary-and-serbia-to-build-pipeline-to-transport-russian-oil

(Basically creating an extension to Serbia from Hungary’s oil pipeline to Russia, to avoid sanctions on Russian oil coming through Croatia)

This + recent tensions in Kosovo and BiH + ya know ‘cradle of world wars’ thing probably means it’s worth keeping an eye on what they do.

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level 2

Ah, more damnfool things in the Balkans. Just what this year needed.

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level 1

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63207771

War in Ukraine: Russia's forces are exhausted, says GCHQ head

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level 2
· 2 mo. ago
Gordon Brown did nothing wrong.

Ahh diddums.

Maybe they should return home to their dachas so babushka can make them some tea.

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level 2
· 2 mo. ago
Oceans rise, empires fall

Unfortunately Russia will soon get a chance to catch their breath because weather. If they are sensible they will use this time to train their conscripts.

Equipment will be more difficult to replenish because sanctions.

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level 1
· 2 mo. ago
Brum

I've seen a few of these nuclear war escalation flowcharts on Twitter from clever people, and to be honest I've found them completely unintelligible, to the point that I'm not convinced they're not actually nonsense and everyone is just nodding along assuming everyone else gets them

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level 2

People can be clever in some things but absolute idiots in others. For instance Jordan Peterson really knows is stuff in a very small sphere but once he strays even a hair outside of that he descends into stupidity. Musk is the same, someone who is obviously really fucking clever but also such a huge fucking idiot. They're like modern James I and VI.

For the opposite you've got people like Stephen Fry (but whose main job is kind of being like that in the first place), Christopher Hitchens and Bill Gates.

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level 2
· 2 mo. ago · edited 2 mo. ago
Liberal?

You've probably seen the one by Max Tegmark. Tegmark is a very intelligent physicist / AI researcher / mathematician. He also fancies himself as a general thinker and philosopher, but unfortunately once he strays from the technical, he descends into absolute shite along with all of the other Bayesian rationalist / effective altruism types (with which Musk flirts too). Especially when it concerns a) people or b) metaphysics. This is obviously to do with people and what they may or may not do, and therefore Tegmark can be safely ignored.

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level 2
· 2 mo. ago · edited 2 mo. ago
Sir Keir Llama

Any which claims to put % probabilities (especially sub-10% granularity) is likely suspect.

In a wider sense, first strike doctrine is anything but, because in practice it will always be a deeply personality driven dynamic - the executive, plus whomever is most able to influence them through advice.

Published first strike doctrine in that sense is usually a geopolitical tool intended to further diplomatic objectives (to threaten, reassure, de-escalate, etc).

On the other hand, retaliatory dynamics are more predictable because of the various incentives (perverse or otherwise) which in practice any nuclear power governed by.

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level 2

They are nonsense.

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level 1
· 2 mo. ago
Sir Keir Llama

Stop the War being lying, mendacious bastards again.

"Today, Russia has responded with large-scale missile attacks on a number of Ukrainian cities, including the first bombardment of Kyiv for months.  These attacks appear aimed at key infrastructure but will inevitably lead to civilian deaths."

Yes, museums and tourist attractions and parks are obviously key infrastructure serving a military purpose. Especially several hundred miles behind the front lines. Jesus Christ.

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level 2
· 2 mo. ago · edited 2 mo. ago
Why does the tofu not simply eat the lettuce?

Jesus that’s a bad one. And I’m someone who usually goes on peace marches.

“Stop the War has called for the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory occupied since the start of the war.

However, it remains the case that this is unlikely to be achieved by Ukrainian military action, no matter how many arms Kyiv is given.”

Strong vibes of telling someone ‘this is impossible to do’ when they’re right in the middle of actually getting it done. Ukraine is successfully driving the Russians back.

”In the end, a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement between Ukraine and Russia is the only way the war will be brought to a halt.”

No shit, this is how every war in modern history has ended, with a ceasefire and settlement. Even if it’s just the victors declaring terms. Which is what Russia will be doing if the Ukraine defenders take StW’s advice and seek a ceasefire.

StW needs to look to WW2 and what pacifists did when they learned about the Nazis and the death camps. Many promptly joined the war effort when they found out. This is one of the most ethically clear conflicts in recent times, certainly up there with Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. It’s morally consistent to reject invasion in each one of these examples AND reject the invasion of Ukraine.

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level 2
· 2 mo. ago
Domino Cummings

What's infuriating is they're also the first to claim Israel can't aim at Palestinian weapons that they've tried to hide in civilian areas.

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level 2
· 2 mo. ago
"The most important Reddit reply the world will ever see" -Hoyle

Hell, blocks of flats FFS.

I'm actually surprised that Russia is wasting valuable cruise missiles on terrorism, though, if they were behaving like Stop The War suggests they may actually be better at fighting this war haha. I've seen it argued that Russian intelligence is so poor that they couldn't determine a weapons or fuel depot, or vehicle storage, even if they wanted to. So, they're intentionally hitting civilians to cause terror and sap their will to fight.

This doesn't make much sense to me, though, because Ukraine's morale is sky high and while each death is a tragedy it's not a massive amount of missiles and Russia have killed far more civilians in areas they've occupied so they're highly motivated to resist. Where as Russia is stamping out protests, press ganging people with no training and sending them to the front lines without equipment, and suffering heavy losses. It's like Russia believes their own propaganda.

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