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Posted by2 months ago

Scientists chart 45 million years of Antarctic temperature change. The new study of Earth’s past is one of the clearest indications yet that humans continue to produce CO2 levels for which we can expect major ice loss at the Antarctic margins and global sea-level rise over the coming decades

44 comments
93% Upvoted
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Remarkable how much detail can be found in such studies

27
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expert knowledge and scientific process yield expert results and information

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Op · 2 mo. ago

The team, led by scientists from Victoria University of Wellington (NZ) and Birmingham (UK) say their results suggest we are nearing a ‘tipping point’ where ocean warming caused by atmospheric CO2 will cause catastrophic rises in sea levels because of melting ice sheets. Their results are published today (15 September 2022) in Nature Geoscience.

In the study, the team examined molecular fossils from core samples taken during ocean drilling projects. The fossil remains are in fact single lipid (insoluble in water) molecules produced by archaea - single-celled https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-022-01025-x which are similar to bacteria. The archaea adjust the composition of their outer membrane lipids in response to changing sea temperatures. By studying these changes, scientists can draw conclusions about the ancient sea temperature which would have surrounded a particular sample as it died.

While these molecular fossil techniques are well used by palaeoclimatologists, the team from Wellington (NZ) and Birmingham (UK) went a step further. They used machine learning to refine the technique, giving the first record to date of changing Antarctic sea temperatures throughout much of the Cenozoic period – covering the past 45 million years.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-022-01025-x

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Its such a shame information like this is hidden behind a $30 monthly pay wall. I'd love to read the full study, especially the data tables.

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What kind of granularity are they claiming over 45 million years? Industrial greenhouse gas production has only been around for 150 years.

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· 2 mo. ago · edited 2 mo. ago

I've been to Antarctica six times over the last 25 years, always to the same site. It's amazing how noticeable the warming trend is. The icecap behind our field camp was once solid ice, now evidence of melting is obvious in summer. Where we once camped on six feet of compacted snow, small creeks now flow over bare rock from all the meltwater. Even the blizzards, once a weekly or twice-weekly occurrence seem to have moderated and I haven't experienced one in my last couple of month-long stays. We used to get around the site in polar gear, now we often just wear cotton work pants, merino thermal tops and fleece jackets (summer on the coast was never like winter in the interior, but still). I'm not a scientist, so I can't talk about cause and effect, but what I've seen is quite troubling.

(Edit: forgot about the change in the clothing, the blizzards!)

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I really wish one of my country's two major parties wasn't doubling down on climate science denial.

We can only prepare for the effects of climate change if we accept the reality of the situation.

7
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Is it another hockey-stick graph? Because we've shown 100 of those to republicans in the past.

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We just make it about sports so they listen.

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For fun, try looking up all of the predictions about dates, deadlines and tipping points that have been published by the scientific community, news outlets and politicians since the 1970's. The earth warms and cools on a regular cycle with a 100,000 year periodicity. We are in a warming trend in general https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_temperature_record#/media/File:EPICA_temperature_plot.svg

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Aren’t we accelerating the warming trend and pushing the high limit to points where we can’t survive though?

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· 2 mo. ago · edited 2 mo. ago

We are in a warming trend in general

Ok. And? Is that the extent of your 'analysis'? Because that leaves out 99% ~100% of the evidence that climate scientists use to conclude that we're facing a big, human-caused problem.

Do you actually believe that you have a better grasp of the issue than the scientific community? Is your thinly veiled climate denialism based simply on a temperature graph with a resolution of ~1000 years, when we are at the front end of a process that is occurring on a shorter time scale? Is the fact that humans weren't rapidly increasing the CO2 level in the ancient past irrelevant to you? Do you deny the basic science of how greenhouse gases work?

Honestly, there's no arrogance like the arrogance of ignorance.

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Why do I love ice core science? Because you can simply say "Ice core science" to successfully debunk EVERY argument climate deniers have ever had. It truly is that easy!

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45 million years is a blink of an eye, for a planet that's 4.54 Billion years old

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4.54 billion years is a blink of the eye, for a universe that is 13.7 billion years old.

13.7 billion years old is a blink of the eye, for the concept of infinite time

Where are we going with this?

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So you blink for over a year at a time?

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1/100 of a total time scale is not a small sample.

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