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Long John Silver
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  • r/Wallstreetsilver - One ounce a month. Sometimes I can afford to buy more, but never less than one.
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🦧🦍💪🏼🔥🖕🏽🤡🌎🔥🪙🚀🌛
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Posted by7 minutes ago

NO CHINA TO THE RESCUE THIS TIME

China is battling multiple economic hits at present and looking increasingly like they will not be the rescue remedy for the next recession, one most analysts are predicting will hit globally next year.

China continued lockdowns

With 1/5 of China currently under lockdown and daily protests escalating, is this the most serious threat facing the Chinese economy and possibly the global economy? Coupled with the slowdown of 0.3% of exports in October, an aging population and a sky high youth unemployment rate, is the Chinese ambitious 5.5% official growth target looking a little too rosy….?

China lockdowns and riots

With the Soccer world cup in full swing, Chinese are seeing huge football stadiums with unmasked people from around the world, even as they are locked down for 5 days if just 1 person in your apartment building has covid.  This has led to riots in Shanghai and more recently daily Foxconn riots outside factories, resulting in 20,000 workers being paid to leave. These protests are being triggered by workers trying to escape lockdowns, being forced in dorms with covid workers and just generally poor pay conditions. 

In Beijing, Shanghai and Wuhan today there have been reports of mass demonstrations, with Chinese chanting ‘Xi Jining, step down’.  These protests are said to be in response to a lockdown apartment block catching fire and due to covid rules, the fire brigade being unable to reach it and 10 people dying.  It is very unusual for Chinese to vent their anger in public protests, where criticism of the political party can result in harsh penalties. 

With the rest of the world moving on with ‘living with covid’ China has become hamstrung with low levels of vaccination and low levels of ICU beds meaning opening up could cripple their health system.

Property Bubble and bank loosening

Recent Ainslie news has discussed the Local government debt and property bubbles as significant risks to the possible implosion of the Chinese economy.  In a sign the Chinese government is starting to see possible downside in these issues, on Wednesday night last week state owned banks were told lend more money to the property sector loosening capital requirements by $70 billion and allowing property developers to defer repayments as necessary

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Long John Silver
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